3 Scenarios of Kazakh’s Economic Development in 2023-2027

Astana – KAZINFORM, Kazakhstan’s National Economy Ministry has developed three scenarios of the country’s economic development in 2023-2027, Kazinform reports.
According to Minister Alibek Kuantyrov, the forecast was compiled based on final data of economic growth in 2021, the expectations of the international financial organizations and export goods prices. He said it at the Government’s meeting today.
As per the IFO forecasts, global oil prices in 2022 will be at $104.2 per barrel.
Global economic growth is expected to be at 3% in 2023. Depending on changes of external and internal parameters, the Ministry drafted three scenarios of Kazakhstan’s economic development for 2023-2027.
As per a basic scenario, the average oil price will be at $85 per barrel and USD /KZT exchange rate will be 470 tenge per one dollar. The average real GDP growth will be 3.9% under this scenario, including 4% in 2023.
Under an optimistic scenario of development, oil prices are expected to be $110 per barrel, while USD /KZT exchange rate will be 440 tenge per one dollar. Average annual economic growth is predicted at 4.2%.
A pessimistic scenario provides for oil price at $60 per a barrel and real GDP growth at 3.5%.
In all the scenarios, inflation is set at 7.5-9.5% in 2023, 4-5% – in 2024, with gradual decline to 3-4% in 2025.
The Ministry recommends to use the basic scenario in budgetary planning. «As per this scenario, real GDP growth will accelerate from 4.0% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2027. Nominal GDP will rise from 120.7trln tenge to 176.6trl tenge,» Alibek Kuantyrov noted.